What is 1 SD formula?

Price range = (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365

How to find weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula?

Example: Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7785, yearly volatility of nifty is 15.6% .we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.

## Example :

 1SD Price Range 168.1844 LTP 7851 Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 0.236 39.69048 7824.69 7745.31 0.382 64.24476 7849.245 7720.755 0.5 84.09 7869.09 7700.91 0.618 103.93524 7888.935 7681.065 0.786 132.18948 7917.189 7652.811 0.888 149.34384 7934.344 7635.656 1.236 207.87048 7992.87 7577.13 1.618 272.11524 8057.115 7512.885

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7825, successful cross over above 7869 will target 7889-7934-8057. Down trend conformation 7743 successful fall below 7701 will trigger fall till 7681-7635-7513.

Range bound trend identification: Uptrend conformation 7825, successful cross over above 7869 will target 7889-7934-8057. Down trend conformation 7743 successful fall below 7701 will trigger fall till 7681-7635-7513.

a. Buying above 7827 with initial stop loss of 7743 for initial target 7895 or selling future below 7743 with stop loss 7827 for target 7674 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.

How to find intraday trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula?

Example: Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7785, yearly volatility of nifty is 15.6% .we are going to find the intraday trend hence days will be 1 calendar days.

Price range =0.156*7785*sqrt(1)/sqrt(365)=63.56

 1SD Price Range 63.56774 LTP 7785 Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 0.236 15.00198704 7800.002 7769.998 0.382 24.28287733 7809.283 7760.717 0.5 31.78387085 7816.784 7753.216 0.618 39.28486437 7824.285 7745.715 0.786 49.96424498 7834.964 7735.036 0.888 56.44815463 7841.448 7728.552 1.236 78.56972874 7863.57 7706.43 1.618 102.8526061 7887.853 7682.147

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7800, successful cross over above 7824 will target 7841-7863-7887. Down trend conformation 7770 successful fall below 7745 will trigger fall till 7729-7706-7782

Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7825 and all down move invites short covering at 7745 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7825 to 7745. This is the Fibonacci 0.618 trade level