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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for BANK NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 21st to 25th Jan 2019).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of Jan 2019 expiry last recorded trade is 27560, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 21st to 25th Jan 2019

1 SD Price Range448.13
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 27665.76, Successful cross-over above 27836.95 will target rise till 27957.94-28113.89-28285.08.

DOWNTREND conformation 27454.24, Successful fall below 27283.05 will trigger fall till 27162.06-27006.11-26834.92

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 27836.95 and all down move invites short covering at 27283.05 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 27836.95 to 27283.05

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 27665.76
  • STOP-LOSS 27454.24,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 27454.24, for initial target 27836.95

  • Selling future below 27454.24
  • STOP-LOSS 27665.76,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 27665.76, for initial target 27283.05 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week BANK NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 27665.76 cross then you buy the nifty future with 27454.24 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 27836.95 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 27731.19 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 27912.23 achieved, revise the stop loss to 27784.07 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 27957.94 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 27912.23. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 27454.24 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 27454.24 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

NIFTY Future trend for 21st to 25th Jan 2019

1 SD Price Range172.09
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 11002.54 with stop loss 10871.06 for initial target 11043.15. Use the 10977.41 put option buy with long future or 11215.25 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 10871.06 hedge it with 10850.75 call or sell below10658.35 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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