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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 13th to 17th August).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of h August expiry last recorded trade is 11435, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 13th to 17th August

1 SD Price Range111.65
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 11461.35, Successful cross-over above 11504 will target rise till 11534.15-11573-11615.65.

DOWNTREND conformation 11408.65, Successful fall below 11366 will trigger fall till 11335.85-11297-11254.35

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 11504 and all down move invites short covering at 11366 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 11504 to 11366

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 11461.35
  • STOP-LOSS 11408.65,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 11408.65, for initial target 11504

  • Selling future below 11408.65
  • STOP-LOSS 11461.35,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 11461.35, for initial target 11366 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 11461.35 cross then you buy the nifty future with 11408.65 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 11504 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 11477.65 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 11522.76 achieved, revise the stop loss to 11490.82 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 11534.15 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 11522.76. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 11408.65 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 11408.65 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 13th to 17th August

1 SD Price Range300.77
BANK NIFTY28154.70
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 28269.59 with stop loss 28039.81 for initial target 28340.57. Use the 28225.68 put option buy with long future or 28641.34 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 28039.81 hedge it with 28004.32 call or sell below27668.06 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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