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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 19th to 22nd Feb 2018).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Feb 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10442, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
NIFTY Future trend for 19th to 22nd Feb 2018
|1 SD Price Range||170.06|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10482.13, Successful cross-over above 10547.1 will target rise till 10593.02-10652.2-10717.16.
DOWNTREND conformation 10401.87, Successful fall below 10336.9 will trigger fall till 10290.98-10231.8-10166.84
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10547.1 and all down move invites short covering at 10336.9 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10547.1 to 10336.9
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10482.13
- STOP-LOSS 10401.87,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10401.87, for initial target 10547.1
- Selling future below 10401.87
- STOP-LOSS 10482.13,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10482.13, for initial target 10336.9 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10482.13 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10401.87 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10547.1 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10506.96 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10575.67 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10527.03 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10593.02 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10575.67. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10401.87 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10401.87 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 19th to 22nd Feb 2018
|1 SD Price Range||555.6|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25412.24 with stop loss 24987.76 for initial target 25543.36. Use the 25331.12 put option buy with long future or 26098.97 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24987.76 hedge it with 24922.2 call or sell below24301.03 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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