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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 22nd to 25th Jan 2018).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Jan 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10916, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 22nd to 25th Jan 2018
|1 SD Price Range||124.78|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10945.45, Successful cross-over above 10993.11 will target rise till 11026.8-11070.22-11117.89.
DOWNTREND conformation 10886.55, Successful fall below 10838.89 will trigger fall till 10805.2-10761.78-10714.11
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10993.11 and all down move invites short covering at 10838.89 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10993.11 to 10838.89
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10945.45
- STOP-LOSS 10886.55,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10886.55, for initial target 10993.11
- Selling future below 10886.55
- STOP-LOSS 10945.45,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10945.45, for initial target 10838.89 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10945.45 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10886.55 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10993.11 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10963.66 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 11014.08 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10978.39 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 11026.8 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 11014.08. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10886.55 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10886.55 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 22nd to 25th Jan 2018
|1 SD Price Range||323.3|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 27017.7 with stop loss 26770.7 for initial target 27094. Use the 26970.5 put option buy with long future or 27417.3 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 26770.7 hedge it with 26732.55 call or sell below26371.1 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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