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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 28th Nov to 2nd Dec 2016).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of Dec 2016 expiry last recorded trade is 8118.60, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 28th Nov to 2nd Dec 2016

1 SD Price Range119.33
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 8146.76, Successful cross-over above 8192.35 will target rise till 8224.57-8266.09-8311.68.

DOWNTREND conformation 8090.44, Successful fall below 8044.85 will trigger fall till 8012.63-7971.11-7925.52

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8192.35 and all down move invites short covering at 8044.85 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8192.35 to 8044.85

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 8146.76
  • STOP-LOSS 8090.44,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8090.44, for initial target 8192.35

  • Selling future below 8090.44
  • STOP-LOSS 8146.76,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8146.76, for initial target 8044.85 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8146.76 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8090.44 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8192.35 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8164.18 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8212.39 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8178.27 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8224.57 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8212.39. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8090.44 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8090.44 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 28th Nov to 2nd Dec 2016

1 SD Price Range432.67
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 18718.28 with stop loss 18387.72 for initial target 18820.39. Use the 18655.11 put option buy with long future or 19253.06 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 18387.72 hedge it with 18336.66 call or sell below17852.94 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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