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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 17th to 21st Oct 2016).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Oct 2016 expiry last recorded trade is 8611.45, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 17th to 21st Oct 2016

1 SD Price Range127.13
NIFTY8611.45
Up TrendDown Trend
0.236308641.458581.45
0.38248.568660.018562.89
0.563.568675.018547.89
0.61878.568690.018532.89
0.78699.928711.378511.53
0.888112.898724.348498.56
1.236157.138768.588454.32
1.618205.698817.148405.76
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 8641.45, Successful cross-over above 8690.01 will target rise till 8724.34-8768.58-8817.14.

DOWNTREND conformation 8581.45, Successful fall below 8532.89 will trigger fall till 8498.56-8454.32-8405.76

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8690.01 and all down move invites short covering at 8532.89 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8690.01 to 8532.89

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 8641.45
  • STOP-LOSS 8581.45,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8581.45, for initial target 8690.01

OR
  • Selling future below 8581.45
  • STOP-LOSS 8641.45,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8641.45, for initial target 8532.89 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8641.45 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8581.45 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8690.01 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8660.01 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8711.37 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8675.01 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8724.34 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8711.37. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8581.45 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8581.45 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 17th to 21st Oct 2016

1 SD Price Range391.26
BANK NIFTY19090
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23692.3419182.3418997.66
0.382149.4619239.4618940.54
0.5195.6319285.6318894.37
0.618241.819331.818848.2
0.786307.5319397.5318782.47
0.888347.4419437.4418742.56
1.236483.619573.618606.4
1.618633.0719723.0718456.93

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 19239.46 with stop loss 18940.54 for initial target 19331.8. Use the 19182.34 put option buy with long future or 19723.07 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 18940.54 hedge it with 18894.37 call or sell below18456.93 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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