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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 2nd to 6th May 16).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of h May 16 expiry last recorded trade is 7898, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 2nd to 6th May 16

1 SD Price Range146.67
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 7932.61, Successful cross-over above 7988.64 will target rise till 8028.25-8079.29-8135.32.

DOWNTREND conformation 7863.39, Successful fall below 7807.36 will trigger fall till 7767.75-7716.71-7660.68

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 7988.64 and all down move invites short covering at 7807.36 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7988.64 to 7807.36

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 7932.61
  • STOP-LOSS 7863.39,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 7863.39, for initial target 7988.64

  • Selling future below 7863.39
  • STOP-LOSS 7932.61,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 7932.61, for initial target 7807.36 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 7932.61 cross then you buy the nifty future with 7863.39 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 7988.64 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 7954.03 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8013.28 achieved, revise the stop loss to 7971.34 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8028.25 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8013.28. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 7863.39 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 7863.39 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 2nd to 6th May 16

1 SD Price Range459.12
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 17047.38 with stop loss 16696.62 for initial target 17155.74. Use the 16980.35 put option buy with long future or 17614.86 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 16696.62 hedge it with 16642.44 call or sell below16129.14 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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