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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 31st Dec to 4th Jan 2019).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Jan 2019 expiry last recorded trade is 10910, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 31st Dec to 4th Jan 2019

1 SD Price Range171.81
NIFTY10910
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23640.5510950.5510869.45
0.38265.6310975.6310844.37
0.585.9110995.9110824.09
0.618106.1811016.1810803.82
0.786135.0511045.0510774.95
0.888152.5711062.5710757.43
1.236212.3611122.3610697.64
1.6182781118810632
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 10950.55, Successful cross-over above 11016.18 will target rise till 11062.57-11122.36-11188.

DOWNTREND conformation 10869.45, Successful fall below 10803.82 will trigger fall till 10757.43-10697.64-10632

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 11016.18 and all down move invites short covering at 10803.82 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 11016.18 to 10803.82

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 10950.55
  • STOP-LOSS 10869.45,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10869.45, for initial target 11016.18

OR
  • Selling future below 10869.45
  • STOP-LOSS 10950.55,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10950.55, for initial target 10803.82 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10950.55 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10869.45 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 11016.18 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10975.63 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 11045.05 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10995.91 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 11062.57 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 11045.05. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10869.45 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10869.45 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 31st Dec to 4th Jan 2019

1 SD Price Range441.23
BANKNIFTY27290
Up TrendDown Trend
0.236104.1327394.1327185.87
0.382168.5527458.5527121.45
0.5220.6227510.6227069.38
0.618272.6827562.6827017.32
0.786346.8127636.8126943.19
0.888391.8127681.8126898.19
1.236545.3627835.3626744.64
1.618713.9128003.9126576.09

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 27458.55 with stop loss 27121.45 for initial target 27562.68. Use the 27394.13 put option buy with long future or 28003.91 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 27121.45 hedge it with 27069.38 call or sell below26576.09 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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