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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 8th to 12th October 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of ber 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10293.50, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 8th to 12th October 2018

1 SD Price Range238.92
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 10349.88, Successful cross-over above 10441.15 will target rise till 10505.66-10588.8-10680.07.

DOWNTREND conformation 10237.12, Successful fall below 10145.85 will trigger fall till 10081.34-9998.2-9906.93

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10441.15 and all down move invites short covering at 10145.85 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10441.15 to 10145.85

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 10349.88
  • STOP-LOSS 10237.12,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10237.12, for initial target 10441.15

  • Selling future below 10237.12
  • STOP-LOSS 10349.88,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10349.88, for initial target 10145.85 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10349.88 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10237.12 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10441.15 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10384.77 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10481.29 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10412.96 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10505.66 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10481.29. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10237.12 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10237.12 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 8th to 12th October 2018

1 SD Price Range765.81
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 24657.54 with stop loss 24072.46 for initial target 24838.27. Use the 24545.73 put option buy with long future or 25604.08 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24072.46 hedge it with 23982.09 call or sell below23125.92 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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