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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 24th To 27th September).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of eptember expiry last recorded trade is 11178, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 24th To 27th September
|1 SD Price Range||190.7|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 11223.01, Successful cross-over above 11295.86 will target rise till 11347.35-11413.71-11486.56.
DOWNTREND conformation 11132.99, Successful fall below 11060.14 will trigger fall till 11008.65-10942.29-10869.44
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 11295.86 and all down move invites short covering at 11060.14 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 11295.86 to 11060.14
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 11223.01
- STOP-LOSS 11132.99,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 11132.99, for initial target 11295.86
- Selling future below 11132.99
- STOP-LOSS 11223.01,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 11223.01, for initial target 11060.14 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 11223.01 cross then you buy the nifty future with 11132.99 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 11295.86 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 11250.85 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 11327.89 achieved, revise the stop loss to 11273.35 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 11347.35 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 11327.89. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 11132.99 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 11132.99 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANK NIFTY Future trend for 24th To 27th September
|1 SD Price Range||632.45|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25916.6 with stop loss 25433.4 for initial target 26065.86. Use the 25824.26 put option buy with long future or 26698.31 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25433.4 hedge it with 25358.77 call or sell below24651.69 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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