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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 20th to 24th August).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of h August expiry last recorded trade is 11487.80, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 20th to 24th August

1 SD Price Range129.65
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 11518.4, Successful cross-over above 11567.93 will target rise till 11602.93-11648.05-11697.58.

DOWNTREND conformation 11457.2, Successful fall below 11407.67 will trigger fall till 11372.67-11327.55-11278.02

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 11567.93 and all down move invites short covering at 11407.67 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 11567.93 to 11407.67

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 11518.4
  • STOP-LOSS 11457.2,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 11457.2, for initial target 11567.93

  • Selling future below 11457.2
  • STOP-LOSS 11518.4,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 11518.4, for initial target 11407.67 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 11518.4 cross then you buy the nifty future with 11457.2 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 11567.93 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 11537.33 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 11589.71 achieved, revise the stop loss to 11552.63 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 11602.93 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 11589.71. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 11457.2 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 11457.2 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 20th to 24th August

1 SD Price Range384.15
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 28319.75 with stop loss 28026.25 for initial target 28410.41. Use the 28263.66 put option buy with long future or 28794.56 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 28026.25 hedge it with 27980.92 call or sell below27551.44 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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