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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 6th to 10th Aug 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of Aug 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 11396, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 6th to 10th Aug 2018

1 SD Price Range122.18
NIFTY11396
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23628.8411424.8411367.16
0.38246.6711442.6711349.33
0.561.0911457.0911334.91
0.61875.5111471.5111320.49
0.78696.0411492.0411299.96
0.888108.511504.511287.5
1.236151.0211547.0211244.98
1.618197.6911593.6911198.31
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 11424.84, Successful cross-over above 11471.51 will target rise till 11504.5-11547.02-11593.69.

DOWNTREND conformation 11367.16, Successful fall below 11320.49 will trigger fall till 11287.5-11244.98-11198.31

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 11471.51 and all down move invites short covering at 11320.49 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 11471.51 to 11320.49

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 11424.84
  • STOP-LOSS 11367.16,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 11367.16, for initial target 11471.51

OR
  • Selling future below 11367.16
  • STOP-LOSS 11424.84,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 11424.84, for initial target 11320.49 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 11424.84 cross then you buy the nifty future with 11367.16 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 11471.51 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 11442.67 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 11492.04 achieved, revise the stop loss to 11457.09 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 11504.5 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 11492.04. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 11367.16 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 11367.16 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 6th to 10th Aug 2018

1 SD Price Range350.05
BANKNIFTY27786
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23682.6127868.6127703.39
0.382133.7227919.7227652.28
0.5175.0227961.0227610.98
0.618216.3328002.3327569.67
0.786275.1428061.1427510.86
0.888310.8428096.8427475.16
1.236432.6628218.6627353.34
1.618566.3828352.3827219.62

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 27919.72 with stop loss 27652.28 for initial target 28002.33. Use the 27868.61 put option buy with long future or 28352.38 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 27652.28 hedge it with 27610.98 call or sell below27219.62 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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