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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 21st to 25th April 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of ril 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10608, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 21st to 25th April 2018

1 SD Price Range124.32
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 10637.34, Successful cross-over above 10684.83 will target rise till 10718.4-10761.66-10809.15.

DOWNTREND conformation 10578.66, Successful fall below 10531.17 will trigger fall till 10497.6-10454.34-10406.85

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10684.83 and all down move invites short covering at 10531.17 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10684.83 to 10531.17

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 10637.34
  • STOP-LOSS 10578.66,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10578.66, for initial target 10684.83

  • Selling future below 10578.66
  • STOP-LOSS 10637.34,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10637.34, for initial target 10531.17 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10637.34 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10578.66 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10684.83 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10655.49 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10705.72 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10670.16 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10718.4 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10705.72. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10578.66 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10578.66 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 21st to 25th April 2018

1 SD Price Range354.47
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 26056.41 with stop loss 25785.59 for initial target 26140.06. Use the 26004.65 put option buy with long future or 26494.53 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25785.59 hedge it with 25743.77 call or sell below25347.47 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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