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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 26th to 28th March).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of th March expiry last recorded trade is 10003.20, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
NIFTY Future trend for 26th to 28th March
|1 SD Price Range||175.26|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10044.56, Successful cross-over above 10111.51 will target rise till 10158.83-10219.82-10286.76.
DOWNTREND conformation 9961.84, Successful fall below 9894.89 will trigger fall till 9847.57-9786.58-9719.64
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10111.51 and all down move invites short covering at 9894.89 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10111.51 to 9894.89
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10044.56
- STOP-LOSS 9961.84,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9961.84, for initial target 10111.51
- Selling future below 9961.84
- STOP-LOSS 10044.56,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10044.56, for initial target 9894.89 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10044.56 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9961.84 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10111.51 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10070.15 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10140.95 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10090.83 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10158.83 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10140.95. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9961.84 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9961.84 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 26th to 28th March
|1 SD Price Range||526.44|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 23881.1 with stop loss 23478.9 for initial target 24005.34. Use the 23804.24 put option buy with long future or 24531.78 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 23478.9 hedge it with 23416.78 call or sell below22828.22 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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