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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 19th to 23rd March 2018).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of rch 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10238, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
NIFTY Future trend for 19th to 23rd March 2018
|1 SD Price Range||172.89|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10278.8, Successful cross-over above 10344.85 will target rise till 10391.53-10451.69-10517.74.
DOWNTREND conformation 10197.2, Successful fall below 10131.15 will trigger fall till 10084.47-10024.31-9958.26
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10344.85 and all down move invites short covering at 10131.15 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10344.85 to 10131.15
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10278.8
- STOP-LOSS 10197.2,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10197.2, for initial target 10344.85
- Selling future below 10197.2
- STOP-LOSS 10278.8,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10278.8, for initial target 10131.15 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10278.8 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10197.2 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10344.85 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10304.04 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10373.89 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10324.45 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10391.53 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10373.89. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10197.2 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10197.2 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 19th to 23rd March 2018
|1 SD Price Range||589.2|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 24860.07 with stop loss 24409.93 for initial target 24999.13. Use the 24774.05 put option buy with long future or 25588.33 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24409.93 hedge it with 24340.4 call or sell below23681.67 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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