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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 12th to 16th March 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of rch 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 10218.60, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 12th to 16th March 2017

1 SD Price Range114.79
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 10245.69, Successful cross-over above 10289.54 will target rise till 10320.54-10360.48-10404.34.

DOWNTREND conformation 10191.51, Successful fall below 10147.66 will trigger fall till 10116.66-10076.72-10032.86

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10289.54 and all down move invites short covering at 10147.66 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10289.54 to 10147.66

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 10245.69
  • STOP-LOSS 10191.51,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10191.51, for initial target 10289.54

  • Selling future below 10191.51
  • STOP-LOSS 10245.69,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10245.69, for initial target 10147.66 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10245.69 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10191.51 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10289.54 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10262.45 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10308.83 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10276 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10320.54 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10308.83. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10191.51 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10191.51 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 12th to 16th March 2017

1 SD Price Range487.91
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 24501.78 with stop loss 24129.02 for initial target 24616.93. Use the 24430.55 put option buy with long future or 25104.84 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24129.02 hedge it with 24071.44 call or sell below23525.96 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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