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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 5th to 9th Feb 2018).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Feb 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10442, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
NIFTY Future trend for 5th to 9th Feb 2018
|1 SD Price Range||112.1|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 10468.45, Successful cross-over above 10511.28 will target rise till 10541.54-10580.55-10623.37.
DOWNTREND conformation 10415.55, Successful fall below 10372.72 will trigger fall till 10342.46-10303.45-10260.63
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10511.28 and all down move invites short covering at 10372.72 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10511.28 to 10372.72
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 10468.45
- STOP-LOSS 10415.55,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10415.55, for initial target 10511.28
- Selling future below 10415.55
- STOP-LOSS 10468.45,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10468.45, for initial target 10372.72 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10468.45 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10415.55 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10511.28 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10484.82 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10530.11 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10498.05 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10541.54 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10530.11. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10415.55 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10415.55 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 5th to 9th Feb 2018
|1 SD Price Range||440.29|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25038.19 with stop loss 24701.81 for initial target 25142.1. Use the 24973.91 put option buy with long future or 25582.39 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24701.81 hedge it with 24649.85 call or sell below24157.61 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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