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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 26th Feb to 2nd Mar 2018).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of Mar 2018 expiry last recorded trade is 10507, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 26th Feb to 2nd Mar 2018

1 SD Price Range121.89
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 10535.77, Successful cross-over above 10582.33 will target rise till 10615.24-10657.66-10704.23.

DOWNTREND conformation 10478.23, Successful fall below 10431.67 will trigger fall till 10398.76-10356.34-10309.77

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 10582.33 and all down move invites short covering at 10431.67 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 10582.33 to 10431.67

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 10535.77
  • STOP-LOSS 10478.23,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 10478.23, for initial target 10582.33

  • Selling future below 10478.23
  • STOP-LOSS 10535.77,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 10535.77, for initial target 10431.67 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 10535.77 cross then you buy the nifty future with 10478.23 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 10582.33 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 10553.56 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 10602.81 achieved, revise the stop loss to 10567.95 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 10615.24 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 10602.81. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 10478.23 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 10478.23 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for 26th Feb to 2nd Mar 2018

1 SD Price Range370.08
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 25546.37 with stop loss 25263.63 for initial target 25633.71. Use the 25492.34 put option buy with long future or 26003.79 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 25263.63 hedge it with 25219.96 call or sell below24806.21 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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