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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 14th to 21st Sept).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of 1st Sept expiry last recorded trade is 7662, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 14th to 21st Sept

1 SD Price Range165.53
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 7701.06, Successful cross-over above 7764.3 will target rise till 7808.99-7866.59-7929.82.

DOWNTREND conformation 7622.94, Successful fall below 7559.7 will trigger fall till 7515.01-7457.41-7394.18

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 7764.3 and all down move invites short covering at 7559.7 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7764.3 to 7559.7

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 7701.06
  • STOP-LOSS 7622.94,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 7622.94, for initial target 7764.3

  • Selling future below 7622.94
  • STOP-LOSS 7701.06,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 7701.06, for initial target 7559.7 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 7701.06 cross then you buy the nifty future with 7622.94 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 7764.3 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 7725.23 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 7792.1 achieved, revise the stop loss to 7744.76 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 7808.99 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 7792.1. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 7622.94 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 7622.94 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for NOT GIVEN

1 SD Price Range0
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 0 with stop loss 0 for initial target 0. Use the 0 put option buy with long future or 0 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 0 hedge it with 0 call or sell below0 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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