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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 28th to 31st Aug 2017).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Aug 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9880, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
Nifty Future trend for 28th to 31st Aug 2017
|1 SD Price Range||113.15|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 9906.7, Successful cross-over above 9949.93 will target rise till 9980.48-10019.86-10063.08.
DOWNTREND conformation 9853.3, Successful fall below 9810.07 will trigger fall till 9779.52-9740.14-9696.92
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9949.93 and all down move invites short covering at 9810.07 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9949.93 to 9810.07
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 9906.7
- STOP-LOSS 9853.3,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9853.3, for initial target 9949.93
- Selling future below 9853.3
- STOP-LOSS 9906.7,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9906.7, for initial target 9810.07 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week Nifty future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9906.7 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9853.3 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9949.93 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9923.22 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9968.94 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9936.58 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9980.48 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9968.94. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9853.3 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9853.3 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
Bank Nifty Future trend for 28th to 31st Aug 2017
|1 SD Price Range||357.82|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 24466.69 with stop loss 24193.31 for initial target 24551.14. Use the 24414.45 put option buy with long future or 24908.96 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 24193.31 hedge it with 24151.09 call or sell below23751.04 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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