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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 10th to 14th July 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of uly 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9668, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 10th to 14th July 2017

1 SD Price Range109.65
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 9693.88, Successful cross-over above 9735.77 will target rise till 9765.37-9803.53-9845.42.

DOWNTREND conformation 9642.12, Successful fall below 9600.23 will trigger fall till 9570.63-9532.47-9490.58

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9735.77 and all down move invites short covering at 9600.23 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9735.77 to 9600.23

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 9693.88
  • STOP-LOSS 9642.12,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9642.12, for initial target 9735.77

  • Selling future below 9642.12
  • STOP-LOSS 9693.88,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9693.88, for initial target 9600.23 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9693.88 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9642.12 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9735.77 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9709.89 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9754.19 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9722.83 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9765.37 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9754.19. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9642.12 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9642.12 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

Bank Nifty Future trend for 10th to 14th July 2017

1 SD Price Range266.08
Bank Nifty23460
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 23561.64 with stop loss 23358.36 for initial target 23624.44. Use the 23522.8 put option buy with long future or 23890.52 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 23358.36 hedge it with 23326.96 call or sell below23029.48 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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