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1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 28th to 30th Dec 2015).
What is 1SD formula?
Nifty future of Dec 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7874, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).
NIFTY Future trend for 28th to 30th Dec 2015
|1 SD Price Range||96.29|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
Trend expectation as per 1SD method:
UPTREND conformation 7896.72, Successful cross-over above 7933.5 will target rise till 7959.5-7993.01-8029.79.
DOWNTREND conformation 7851.28, Successful fall below 7814.5 will trigger fall till 7788.5-7754.99-7718.21
RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 7933.5 and all down move invites short covering at 7814.5 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7933.5 to 7814.5
What trade decision one trader should take?:
- Buying above 7896.72
- STOP-LOSS 7851.28,
- HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 7851.28, for initial target 7933.5
- Selling future below 7851.28
- STOP-LOSS 7896.72,
- HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 7896.72, for initial target 7814.5 is advisable.
Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.
How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?
On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 7896.72 cross then you buy the nifty future with 7851.28 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 7933.5 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 7910.78 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 7949.68 achieved, revise the stop loss to 7922.14 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 7959.5 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 7949.68. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.
After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 7851.28 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 7851.28 call long.
If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.
You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.
Get our complete option course to learn options.
Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.
BANKNIFTY Future trend for 28th to 30th Dec 2015
|1 SD Price Range||233.98|
|Up Trend||Down Trend|
What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 16934.88 with stop loss 16756.12 for initial target 16990.1. Use the 16900.72 put option buy with long future or 17224.09 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 16756.12 hedge it with 16728.51 call or sell below16466.91 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.
Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.
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