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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for Nifty future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 3rd to 7th April 2017).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of ril 2017 expiry last recorded trade is 9198.30, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

Nifty Future trend for 3rd to 7th April 2017

1 SD Price Range100.89
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 9222.11, Successful cross-over above 9260.65 will target rise till 9287.89-9323-9361.54.

DOWNTREND conformation 9174.49, Successful fall below 9135.95 will trigger fall till 9108.71-9073.6-9035.06

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 9260.65 and all down move invites short covering at 9135.95 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 9260.65 to 9135.95

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 9222.11
  • STOP-LOSS 9174.49,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 9174.49, for initial target 9260.65

  • Selling future below 9174.49
  • STOP-LOSS 9222.11,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 9222.11, for initial target 9135.95 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week Nifty future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 9222.11 cross then you buy the nifty future with 9174.49 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 9260.65 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 9236.84 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 9277.6 achieved, revise the stop loss to 9248.74 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 9287.89 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 9277.6. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 9174.49 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 9174.49 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

Bank Nifty Future trend for 3rd to 7th April 2017

1 SD Price Range354.33
Bank Nifty21483
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 21618.35 with stop loss 21347.65 for initial target 21701.98. Use the 21566.62 put option buy with long future or 22056.31 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 21347.65 hedge it with 21305.83 call or sell below20909.69 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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