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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 12th to 16th Dec 2016).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365

Nifty future of Dec 2016 expiry last recorded trade is 8275, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 12th to 16th Dec 2016

1 SD Price Range115.74
Up TrendDown Trend
Trend expectation as per 1SD method

UPTREND conformation 8302.32, Successful cross-over above 8346.53 will target rise till 8377.78-8418.06-8462.27.

DOWNTREND conformation 8247.68, Successful fall below 8203.47 will trigger fall till 8172.22-8131.94-8087.73

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8346.53 and all down move invites short covering at 8203.47 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8346.53 to 8203.47

What trade decision one trader should take?
  • Buying above 8302.32
  • STOP-LOSS 8247.68,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 8247.68, for initial target 8346.53

  • Selling future below 8247.68
  • STOP-LOSS 8302.32,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8302.32, for initial target 8203.47 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8302.32 cross then you buy the nifty future with 8247.68 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8346.53 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8319.21 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8365.97 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8332.87 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8377.78 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8365.97. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 8247.68 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 8247.68 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANK NIFTY Future trend for 12th to 16th Dec 2016

1 SD Price Range394.05
Up TrendDown Trend

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 18870.53 with stop loss 18569.47 for initial target 18963.52. Use the 18813 put option buy with long future or 19357.57 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 18569.47 hedge it with 18522.97 call or sell below18082.43 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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