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Hello Friends!

1 SD formula is giving success in weekly forecast, from last 119 weeks. Below levels is the weekly level for NIFTY future and bank nifty future for 135th week (i.e. 4th to 9th Oct).

What is 1SD formula?

Price Range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) divide by Square root of 365


Nifty future of 9th Oct expiry last recorded trade is 7974, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days(including Saturday+Sunday).

NIFTY Future trend for 4th to 9th Oct

1 SD Price Range162.33
NIFTY7974
Up TrendDown Trend
0.23638.318012.317935.69
0.38262.018036.017911.99
0.581.168055.167892.84
0.618100.328074.327873.68
0.786127.598101.597846.41
0.888144.158118.157829.85
1.236200.648174.647773.36
1.618262.658236.657711.35
Trend expectation as per 1SD method
:

UPTREND conformation 8012.31, Successful cross-over above 8074.32 will target rise till 8118.15-8174.64-8236.65.

DOWNTREND conformation 7935.69, Successful fall below 7873.68 will trigger fall till 7829.85-7773.36-7711.35

RANGE-BOUND trend identification: If all up move invites sale above 8074.32 and all down move invites short covering at 7873.68 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8074.32 to 7873.68

What trade decision one trader should take?
:
  • Buying above 8012.31
  • STOP-LOSS 7935.69,
  • HEDGE by buying put option of strike below 7935.69, for initial target 8074.32

OR
  • Selling future below 7935.69
  • STOP-LOSS 8012.31,
  • HEDGE buy buying call option of strike above 8012.31, for initial target 7873.68 is advisable.

Note:These levels are weekly levels hence hedge the position with option for better money management. For intraday, better use our 1SD paid software.

How to trade this week NIFTY future levels?

On Monday or any time during the week if nifty 8012.31 cross then you buy the nifty future with 7935.69 put option long. If it achieves the 1st target 8074.32 during the day or any point during the week revise your stop loss to 8036.01 and hold the trade. If the 2nd target 8101.59 achieved, revise the stop loss to 8055.16 and hold the trade. If the 3rd target 8118.15 achieved, then trail or revise the stop loss to 8101.59. Continue this till last target is not achieved or trailing stop loss is not triggered. If trailing stop loss trigger, then close the hedging option position also.

After you initiate the buy trade
If the trend changes and stop loss 7935.69 hits then close the option trade, future long trade and enter the fresh trade in nifty future short and 7935.69 call long.

If your trade is with the option hedge and future has reached the stop loss, then do not quit the trade in hurry better wait for conclusive price crossover of 0.382 retracement or for the closing session 3:15 to 3:30 then decide.

You can also implement any other option strategy by the way of writing the options to protect the future trade.

Get our complete option course to learn options.

Note:I am using the call long simple option strategy to demonstrate hedging principle in trade. However, you can write the option also and do any complex strategy to protect the trade.

BANKNIFTY Future trend for NOT GIVEN

1 SD Price Range0
BANKNIFTY0
Up TrendDown Trend
0.236000
0.382000
0.5000
0.618000
0.786000
0.888000
1.236000
1.618000

What trade decision one trader should take? Buy above 0 with stop loss 0 for initial target 0. Use the 0 put option buy with long future or 0 call option sell with long future to hedge the trade. If you sell it at 0 hedge it with 0 call or sell below0 put option. Since 0.236 price giving triggering in bank nifty because of its high base value I am changing the entry point to 0.382 price point.

Conclusion: If you look the daily price point in the chart and compare with the weekly levels we have given, you will find our calculated point worked as point of pressure some time and point of revival some time.

Refer the past performance of the 1SD weekly trend calculation (from September 2015 to September 2017)

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